No matter who wins the American elections, we will have a Bull Season in #Bitcoin. No news or event can stop the Bull from happening
Ahead of the 2017 Bull Season;
In December 2016, the Fed raised interest rates and signaled that it might raise rates a few more times in 2017. Under normal circumstances, while risky markets should have declined during the period when the Fed switched to tight monetary policy, Bitcoin had experienced the biggest Bull Season ever.
Before the 2021 Bull, there was a pandemic crisis in the world. The majority said in one voice: “In a crisis environment, no money will enter risky markets, since crypto is a risky market, the money that the Fed will print will not enter crypto, and since there is already a margin, there will be no Bulls like before”
Both the 2017 Bull Season and the 2021 Bull Season should have taught us that nothing can stand in the way of the Bull Season and that we don't need any news or events to have both a Bull and a Bear Season
American elections affect the Bitcoin chart short-term, not long-term
When we look at what might happen on the short-term chart;
If Kamala Harris is elected and not Trump, which is our best bet, there may be a short-term drop, but I don't think there will be as big and sudden a drop as expected now that the uncertainty of the election is over.
With today's decline, I think that the possibility of Kamala Harris' election is priced in, if Trump is elected, there will be no “sell the news” and the rises will start after the election.
The key issue is the market cycle
No matter who wins the American elections, we will have a Bull Season in 2025
As an example, if I say that we will be bullish even if Kamala Harris comes out and says “Bitcoin is a scam” when she is elected, you might think “No way”, but this scenario has happened in the past.
Trump, who praises Bitcoin today, said “Bitcoin is a fraud” when he was the US president in 2019
In 2019, the US president's statement that “Bitcoin is a fraud” could not prevent the Bull, which should have happened in 2021 according to the market cycle
Likewise, the fact that Trump, who will most likely win the US elections in the coming period, cannot praise Bitcoin will not prevent the Bear Season. In 2026 - 2027 and 2028, no news or event will interrupt the Bear Season
I think the upcoming Bear Season will create the most victims in the history of crypto. Both the approval of ETFs and the constant praise of Bitcoin by Trump, who will most likely become the US president, will put many who do not trust crypto into fomo
The Altcoin Rally must start first for the fomon to begin
No matter how much positive news is served to the market, no one will enter this market unless the investor inside wins.
In the 2021 Bull Season, new investors did not come because Bitcoin rose 10 times in one year from $ 3150 to $ 30,000. During the January 2021 Altcoin Rally, which started in January 2021, thanks to Altcoins rising 50 times - 100 times in a very short time and people who made serious money from Altcoins in a short time, new investors started to flock to crypto, saying “everyone is winning, so let me win too”
Regardless of the ordeals we suffered for 3 years during the Bear Season, it should be said that “they get rich in a short time”. Sinking stock exchanges and coins should be forgotten thanks to the Altcoins that are soaring recklessly
In 2014, the Mtgox exchange, the largest exchange at the time, which can be called today's Binance, went bankrupt after 140,000 Bitcoins were stolen from the investor inside. Thousands of people are victimized, but Altcoins, which were upgraded 100 times in the 2017 Bull, made us forget the past and new investors came flooding in to be the victims of the next Bear
The Altcoin Rally is a bait used to lure new victims into the market who will become victims of the next Bear
This bait will make us forget about the sinking coins and the thousands of victims of FTX's collapse. The influx will attract new victims
In today's process, I see the questions “has the Bear Season started?” that haunt some people's minds and I am really surprised.
The Bear Season lasts for 3 years. The main purpose of the Bear Season is to sell inflated coins that would otherwise be worthless during the Bear Season, which falls little by little for 3 years, to people who were lured into the market during the Bull and made to believe that every drop was a buying opportunity.
During the Bear Season, the market doesn't fall as sharply as it does today. For 3 years, it falls little by little. We take every dip as a buying opportunity and keep buying worthless dysfunctional coins. Sometimes the market goes up suddenly and we get excited, “I wonder if the bull has started, I wonder if we're going to start going up again like the days when we entered the market.”
The market doesn't drop suddenly and scare us like it does today, it drops little by little and encourages us to buy
During the 3-year Bear Season, buyers need to be created to sell their coins. The buyer of the coin to be sold during the Bear Season is created by the Altcoin Rally
In order for this ponzi-like system to continue, it is essential to attract new investors to the market
They MUST keep the Altcoin Rally alive, which is an advertising tool that will attract new investors to the market, who will be the victims of the next month, no matter what happens, no matter who wins the American elections, whether the Fed cuts interest rates or not, whether war breaks out or not.
This is the only way for the coffers to win
I would like to thank everyone who has read this far for valuing my thoughts and analysis. I hope I have helped you in some small way
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