**For us, $69,000 in Bitcoin is not a finish line, but a starting line.**
When we look at Bitcoin's past bull seasons, we see that significant rallies have always started after breaking the previous bull's peak.
Bitcoin's price has changed, dates have changed, and while the rate of increase has decreased as the amount of money in the market has increased, what has happened in the past has repeated itself in a similar manner.
Looking at the 2011 bull season, we observe that Bitcoin experienced both the biggest decline ever during a bear season and the biggest increase ever during a bull season.
In the 2013 bull, the rate of increase dropped from the 2011 bull. In the 2017 bull, the rate of increase dropped from the 2013 bull. In the 2021 bull, the rate of increase dropped from the 2017 bull.
In the upcoming bull season, the increase from the bottom to the peak in the 2021 bull will not be 20 times. The increase in the 2029 bull will also not match that of the 2025 bull.
The common saying in the market that "this will be the last bull season" is a significant misunderstanding.
The decrease in the rates of increase and decrease as the money in the market increases does not mean "this will be the last bull." If we look at it that way, just because the highest increase and decrease occurred in 2011, it does not mean that no bull season occurred afterward.
When we examine the similarities between the 2021 bull season and today's situation, as well as what might happen in the future;
On November 25, 2020, we had experienced a three-year bear season and had just reached the old peak of the 2017 bull, which was $19,800, for the first time.
When we first reached the old peak of the 2017 bull, there was a 17% drop from the $19,400 region. The second time we reached it, there was a 12% drop from the $19,800 region.
Before the real rallies began in the 2021 bull, we got stuck at the $19,800 region for exactly 30 days. The perception that "the old peak cannot be surpassed, sales should be made from these levels" was ingrained in us.
In the current process, similarly, we have been stuck at the $69,000 region, the old peak of the 2021 bull, for 240 days, and the perception that "the old peak cannot be surpassed, sales should be made from these levels" has become deeply ingrained in us.
In the 2021 bull, after breaking the old peak of $19,800, Bitcoin rose to $42,000 in just 24 days.
During the rise from $19,800 to $42,000;
Bitcoin dominance increased from around 60% to 73%. In this process, Bitcoin rose more than altcoins. The dollar price of altcoins did not decrease, but since altcoins rose less than Bitcoin, their BTC pairs dropped.
During the rise from Bitcoin's low of $3,150 to $42,000, altcoins stagnated. Most altcoins rose less compared to Bitcoin.
A correction came from $42,000, and we dropped to $29,000.
In Bitcoin's tenfold increase from $3,150 to $29,000, altcoins that had been stagnating for a long time rose 50 to 100 times in just four months during Bitcoin's only twofold increase from $29,000 to $65,000, and the altcoin rally occurred in the last quarter of the bull.
In the upcoming period, if, as I believe, the peak of the bull will be in the first quarter of 2025 without extending to the end of 2025, and if the rise we are experiencing is not a second interim rise but a bull season, we should see a process similar to this.
After the $69,000 level is permanently surpassed, I believe that, as we rose from $19,800 to $42,000 in 24 days in 2021, we will sharply rise to around $90,000 in a short time from $69,000.
For those who say, "In 2021, we rose 2 times from $19,800 to $42,000, why don't you expect a 2-fold rise from $69,000 now?" my answer is that as the amount of money in the market grows, the rates of increase decrease.
After briefly rising to around $90,000, I personally do not expect a sharp correction like the one that occurred from $42,000 to $29,000 in 2021.
The reason I don't expect a significant correction before the altcoin rally like in the past is that;
The interim rise in 2024 has shown us that we have the strongest Bitcoin ever because;
Before the 2017 bull, Bitcoin had dropped 40%.
Before the 2021 bull, Bitcoin had dropped more than 50% from $14,000 to $6,000 in the first interim rise.
In both the 2017 interim rise and the first interim rise of 2021, while Bitcoin experienced significant declines, altcoins dropped by 70%.
In the current interim rise, however, Bitcoin has held up very well, while altcoins have dropped by 70% in a manner closely resembling the past.
Just because Bitcoin made a significant correction from $42,000 to $29,000 before the 2021 altcoin rally does not mean that Bitcoin will make a significant correction from $90,000 before the next altcoin rally. The reason is that we have the strongest Bitcoin ever.
To get to the most important point;
During the rise from $69,000 to $90,000, we must see strong Bitcoin dominance. Bitcoin should rise more than altcoins. While the dollar price of altcoins rises less than Bitcoin, their BTC pairs should drop.
There is no rule that Bitcoin dominance will rise from 60% to 73% as it did in the past from $69,000 to $90,000. We could move sideways at these levels, these levels could be a peak, or we could rise to around 62%.
What is important for us is that Bitcoin dominance should not drop during this process. If Bitcoin dominance falls from around 59% to 48% during this process and altcoins rise more than Bitcoin, it means we will experience a second interim rise and the peak of the bull will extend to the end of 2025.
If we see a decline in Bitcoin dominance during this process, we could witness a process similar to the second interim rise that occurred before the 2021 bull.
In the second interim rise before the 2021 bull;
Bitcoin had reached a peak of 70% in dominance before completing its rise in May 2020.
From May 2020 to August 2020, altcoins rose between 5 and 10 times. During this period, Bitcoin dominance fell from 70% to 57%. Altcoins rising before Bitcoin completed its rise created a second interim rise.
Between August 2020 and November 2020, while Bitcoin experienced only a 20% drop, altcoins dropped by 70%.
If, in the upcoming period, Bitcoin dominance falls and altcoins rise more than Bitcoin, I believe that in the first half of 2025, altcoins will rise 5 to 10 times and peak, while Bitcoin will hold strong and altcoins will experience a 70% drop.
If we see strong Bitcoin dominance in Bitcoin's rise from $69,000 to $90,000, it means this will end in the first quarter of 2025.
We will witness that altcoins, which have stagnated at $15,500, will make 50 times and 100 times rises in the short increase from $90,000 to only $140,000 - $150,000.
The current picture significantly increases the likelihood that the peak of the bull will occur in the first quarter of 2025. Although the possibility that we will remain until the end of 2025 and that the upcoming rise will be a second interim rise is low, we must be aware of this possibility and plan what we will do in case it happens.
My personal view is that the bull will peak in the first quarter of 2025, and the upcoming rise will not be a second interim rise, but a bull season. I believe that the altcoin rally will start by the end of December 2024.
New investors are the driving force of this market. To keep the wheel turning, it is essential to attract new investors to this market. The bait to attract new investors, who will be the next bear's victims, is the altcoin rally.
New investors will not come to this market just because Bitcoin rose 10 times from $15,500 to $150,000 in two years.
They will come because they hear about altcoins that have risen 50 times or 100 times in a very short time. New investors will enter the market, unaware of the hardships experienced by those who made incredible profits from altcoins during the three-year bear season, thinking, "These people get rich quickly, they get rich easily, everyone is winning, so I must win too."
If they want to create buyers to sell worthless, dysfunctional altcoins;
If they want to take people's money and give them worthless dysfunctional altcoins that will disappear in the next bear season;
If they want to attract new investors who will be victims in the next bear season;
They must sustain the altcoin rally. No news or event can change this; the only way for the cash register to profit is this.
We must believe in the market cycle in crypto. The four-year market cycle works perfectly, but the events that occur within the four-year market cycle change.
Bitcoin
is not just a digital currency; it is a revolution.
Here’s the translation of your text:
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Looking back at the beginning of the market cycle in 2011:
Bitcoin peaked at $32 during the 2011 Bull Run and then fell to a low of $2, experiencing a 94% drop. After nearly two years of accumulation, the previous peak of $32 was broken.
Once the $32 peak of the 2011 Bull Run was surpassed, the real sharp increases began, and 40 days later, it reached the first peak of the 2013 Bull Run at $270.
From the first peak of the 2013 Bull Season at $270, there was a 75% drop, falling to $65, which I refer to as a six-month mini Bear Season.
After the six-month mini Bear Season, the $270 peak was broken, and the real sharp increases began.
Exactly 20 days after breaking the $270 peak, the true peak of the 2013 Bull Run at $1200 was reached, leading to a real Bear Season that would last for three years.
The 2013 Bull Season was very similar to the 2021 Bull Season, and during this process, I had the experience of being wrong when I thought the 2013 Bull Season would repeat itself exactly. I learned that "the four-year market cycle operates perfectly, but what happens within the four-year cycle changes."
In the 2021 Bull Run, the first peak was reached at $65,000. I had completely sold my coins before the $65,000 peak and had largely withdrawn my money from the market.
When we fell from $65,000 to $30,000, I started my Bear Season strategy—first Bitcoin, then Altcoins—by purchasing Bitcoin, which I also applied during the 2022 Bear Season.
At that time, I believed there would be a three-year Bear Season ahead.
In the 2013 Bull Run, after the first peak at $270, a six-month mini Bear Season was experienced, and then the true peak of $1200 followed, just as it happened.
In the 2021 Bull Season, after the $65,000 peak, a mini Bear Season occurred first, followed by the breaking of the previous peak of $65,000. After the old peak was broken, I expected a process similar to what occurred in the 2013 Bull Run, but something unprecedented happened in history. Despite the breaking of the old peak, sharp increases did not begin, and we only rose to $69,000 before entering the Bear Season.
At the peak of $65,000 in the 2021 Bull Run, most experienced individuals who had previously gone through Bear Seasons exited the market. Only new investors remained during that process.
While many managed to escape before being caught by the Bear, an unprecedented event occurred. A second peak was established, and despite the breaking of the old peak, we entered the Bear Season before any significant increases began.
If the majority had not exited the market at the $65,000 peak, I doubt a second peak would have been reached.
There are crucial lessons to be learned from the 2021 Bull Run. We must take these lessons seriously.
The most important lesson is:
The reality that we are not hunters in this market, but rather victims. If we see ourselves as superior to this market and forget that we are victims in it, we will be hunted.
If enough people do not stay in the market, we are competing with people who have the power to start a Bear Season without triggering sharp increases after breaking Bitcoin's old peak, just as it happened in the past, and they can postpone the Bear Season if enough people do not stay inside.
In the next Bull Run, we must never fall into the mindset of "I have already experienced a Bear Season, I am now experienced, I have already made a lot of money, I have solved this market."
Those who enter the "I have solved this market" psychology, influenced by the money earned during the Bull, are doomed to be caught in the next Bear Season and lose all their profits.
At the peak of the upcoming Bull, it is very clear that they will do everything in their power to keep us inside and deny that the Bear Season has begun.
Since enough people did not stay in the 2021 Bull Run, the same powerful people who will create another peak will not easily let us exit in the next Bull. If necessary, they will create unprecedented events in history. They will create an extremely enthusiastic environment to make us believe that "there is no reason for a decline." Perhaps everyone will expect a second peak, just as in the 2021 Bull Run, but that second peak will never come.
In the upcoming Bull Season, even if the American President praises Bitcoin endlessly, everyone buys Bitcoin, and ETFs are accepted, it will not prevent the next Bear Season from coming.
Unfettered rising Altcoins, extremely positive news, and the appearance of having no reasons for a decline are an illusion created to lure new victims into the quagmire of the next Bear Season and ensure that the investors inside do not exit.
It is impossible to know where the bottom and the peak will be. Our goal should not be to achieve the impossible and hit the peak but rather to buy in the right place, sell in the right place, and withdraw our profits from the exchange without losing them.
Be sure, when it comes time to sell;
I will clearly and clearly share that it is time to sell and what will happen in the next Bear Season in the light of the Bear Seasons in the past.
I would like to thank everyone who has read this post up to this point for valuing my thoughts and analysis. I hope I helped you even a little with this post.
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